Definition. The Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio (RPLR, orange) compares the spending/HODLing behavior of long-term investors (Liveliness) with the 'fair value' of Bitcoin (Realized Price). It is plotted alongside spot price (grey) and the Realized Price (dark blue).

Technical. The Realized Price is often considered the aggregate cost basis for the market, reflecting the average price at which the coin supply was last spent on-chain. Liveliness is a unit-less metric calculated as the ratio between the cumulative sum of coin-days destroyed and the cumulative sum of coin-days created, trading between 0 (no coin ever spent) and 1 (all coins spent instantaneously):

• RPLR = Realized Price / Liveliness

Interpretation. The ratio applies a weighting factor to the Realized Price in line with the degree of HODLing taking place in the network. Large scale HODLing acts to constrain supply, increasing the estimated 'fair value', and vice-versa:

• Where more HODLing is taking place, more coin-days are created, Liveliness trends towards zero, and RPLR fair value is estimated higher.

• Where less HODLing is taking place, more coin-days are destroyed, Liveliness trends towards unity, and RPLR fair value is estimated lower.

Notes. Coined by Dor Shahar, 2021 — see the introduction thread and the article Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio. Built from Realized Price and Liveliness. The Ethereum version is available here; for the broader Liveliness framework see Liveliness & Vaultedness.