Description
Definition. Price as a multiple of each market cycle's all-time high, with every cycle aligned at its ATH.
Technical. The x-axis is the number of days elapsed since that cycle's all-time high rather than a calendar date, so every cycle begins together at day 0 with a value of 1. A cycle ATH is an all-time high that was followed by a drawdown of at least 75% before the next all-time high was reached, plus the most recent all-time high, whose cycle is still open. Assets that have never completed such a cycle are not covered. Each series ends when the next cycle's ATH is set, so its final value is the ratio between the two consecutive cycle peaks.
Interpretation. Readings below 1 are drawdowns: 0.52 means price stands at 52% of that cycle's peak, i.e. 48% below it. Crossing above 1 marks new all-time-high territory and the start of the next cycle. Overlaying the cycles shows whether the current drawdown is deeper or shallower, and its recovery faster or slower, than at the same point in previous cycles. Best read on a log scale.