Definition. HODL Cave is the distribution of historical returns for investors who hold BTC over various durations, visualizing both potential gains and risks across holding periods.

Technical. The chart shows holding period in days on the x-axis and the distribution of historically observed returns at that duration on the y-axis as percentiles. For example, at a three-year holding duration, if the 80th percentile line shows a 5x return, 80% of all three-year holding periods achieved at least that return. The series is not static: new holding windows ending at the current timestamp contribute to all existing holding periods and modify the observed distribution.

Interpretation. Surfaces the full spread of historical outcomes at each holding duration rather than a single average, exposing both long-term growth potential and short-term volatility. Answers questions of the form: what have been the typical returns for holding BTC for three years?

Notes. First introduced by Unchained Capital.