Description
Definition. The daily change in ETH supply considering the three primary sources of supply change:
- PoW issuance, which was halted at the Merge on 15 September 2022.
- PoS issuance, which commenced after the Beacon Chain genesis event on 1 December 2020.
- Supply burnt by the EIP-1559 protocol, which was activated on 5 August 2021.
Positive values 🟢 represent a net inflationary period, whilst negative values 🔴 indicate net supply contraction (ETH supply deflation). The chart also shows two simulated traces for historical comparison:
Simulated Continuation of the PoW blockchain 🟠— assumes the PoS Merge never took place, with 2 ETH issued per block (uncle rewards ignored for simplicity).
Simulated PoS-only chain 🟣 — assumes the Merge took place alongside the EIP-1559 London hard fork on 5 August 2021, and thus ignores all PoW block rewards after that date.
Technical. The observed net change combines all three sources, with the estimated PoS issuance included only up to the Merge block (height 15,537,394) to cover the period when the Beacon Chain issued in parallel to Proof-of-Work:
Net Supply Change = PoW/PoS Issuance + (Estimated Beacon Issuance / 365, pre-Merge only) - diff(Burned Supply, 1)Simulated PoW = 2 ETH x Blocks per Day - Daily BurnðŸŸSimulated PoS-only = Estimated Annual Beacon Issuance / 365 - Daily Burn🟣
Interpretation. The green/red columns give a daily verdict on Ethereum's monetary balance, while the two counterfactual traces frame how consequential the protocol transitions were: the PoW-continuation trace shows the persistent, demand-insensitive inflation the old regime would have produced, whereas the PoS-only trace shows how frequently the network would have been deflationary had the Merge coincided with EIP-1559. The gap between the simulated traces and the observed columns quantifies the supply impact of the Merge itself.
Notes. Built from Issuance, Estimated Annual Beacon Chain Issuance and Burned Supply. See also Proof-of-Stake Net Inflation Rate and Post-Merge Supply Dynamics.