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Glassnode

Description

Definition. Flags the periods where the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio trades above 1.0 — that is, where the average coin moving on-chain is moving at a profit.

Technical. aSOPR is drawn in orange against a grey 1.0 break-even line. The plotted series is clipped below 0.8 (if(aSOPR > 0.8, aSOPR, 0)) so that historical outliers do not compress the axis. Blue signal columns are:

  • if(aSOPR > 1, 1, 0)

evaluated on the daily series. Price is the black log-scaled line, and the complementary "below 1.0" series is hidden by default.

Interpretation. aSOPR is the ratio of realised value to acquisition value across all spent outputs, with outputs younger than one hour discarded so that internal change transfers do not distort it. Because it works per output and ignores coin volume, it weights a small spend and a large one equally, giving a read on the broadest cross-section of the market rather than on the largest transactors. A reading above 1.0 means the market is, on aggregate, realising profits — which requires enough incoming demand to absorb that selling. The transition from below to above 1.0 is the more informative event than the level itself: during a bear market aSOPR is repeatedly rejected at 1.0 as loss-holders sell into any strength, and a decisive break that holds marks the point where that overhead supply has been worked through.

Notes. Built from aSOPR and Price. Compare with the Realized P/L Ratio chart in this section, which asks the same question but weights every spend by its USD value, so the two disagree when whales and retail behave differently. Supplies one of the two profitability conditions of the recovery confluence score.

Chart Details