Definition. The Puell Multiple expressed as a deviation from its long-term mean, with bands marking statistically extreme readings. The Puell Multiple represents total miner revenue relative to its own yearly average, a proxy for miner profitability and income stress.

Technical. The chart plots Puell Multiple − 1, so zero marks revenue equal to the yearly baseline. The long-term baseline is a 4-year rolling mean, with bands at μ + 1σ on the upside and μ − 0.8σ on the downside, reflecting the indicator's asymmetric distribution. The Signal Reached series highlights closes outside either band.

Interpretation. Puell − 1 = 0.2 means miners are earning 20% above their yearly baseline, 0.0 means revenue matches it, and −0.3 means 30% below. Extreme upside readings indicate unusually profitable mining conditions that cluster around cycle tops; extreme downside readings indicate income stress and elevated risk of miner capitulation.

Notes. The downside band uses 0.8σ rather than the 1σ used on the MVRV and aSOPR charts. Background in the Academy entry on the Puell Multiple. One of four oscillators feeding Cycle Extreme Oscillators — Confluence Summary.