Within a Cointime Economics framework, we make the claim that a traditional MVRV break-even value of 1.0, may in fact be masking the scale of unrealized loss held within the economically meaningful supply. We believe this assertion is sound and is visible when comparing Cointime supply regions with the total Supply Held in Profit or Loss.

This chart shows the following traces:

• 🟣 Circulating Supply, being the total BTC coin supply.
• 🔴 Active Supply, reflecting a volume equivalent to the economically active supply.
• 🟡 Total Supply in Loss, being the volume with a realized price higher than the spot price.

We can see an interesting phenomena, whereby the Total Supply in Loss has approached and historically intersected with Active Supply, typically during the latest stages of cyclical bear markets. This would suggest that a vast majority, if not all, of the economically active coin supply is in fact held at a loss during these times.

Coined By

This metric was developed within the Cointime Economics framework for Bitcoin. This project was a joint venture between Glassnode and ARK Invest, with full details available in two formats: an overview primer (Version I published via ARK) and a comprehensive guide for specialists (Version II published via Glassnode).