Definition. This chart tracks the momentum of Bitcoin's on-chain settlement volume by comparing the monthly average 🔴 of change-adjusted transfer volume against the yearly average 🔵, plotted over the raw daily volume (faint orange) and price (grey). Healthy network adoption is often characterized by an uptick in daily active users, more transaction throughput, and increased demand for blockspace (and vice-versa), making transfer volume on-chain an effective tool to gauge the magnitude, trend and momentum of activity across the network.

Technical. Change-adjusted volume removes change outputs returning to the sender, giving a cleaner estimate of the value actually transferred. The momentum traces are simple moving averages of this USD-denominated volume:

• Monthly Average = sma(Change-Adjusted Transfer Volume, 30) 🔴
• Yearly Average = sma(Change-Adjusted Transfer Volume, 365) 🔵

Interpretation. Due to intraday volatility in on-chain activity metrics, the absolute value of transfer volume on any given day can be uninformative. However, comparing the magnitude and trend of transfer volume on a monthly and yearly basis can be much more informative — the crossovers underline relative shifts in dominant sentiment and help identify when the tides are turning for network activity:

• Monthly 🔴 > Yearly 🔵 indicates an expansion in on-chain activity, typical of improving network fundamentals, and growing network utilization.

• Monthly 🔴 < Yearly 🔵 indicates a contraction in on-chain activity, typical of deteriorating network fundamentals, and declining network utilization.

Notes. Built from Change-Adjusted Transfer Volume. An entity-adjusted variant is charted in Transfer Volume Momentum (Entity-Adjusted); the same framework applied to counts is Transaction Count Momentum and Active Address Momentum.