Definition. This chart provides a breakdown of the percent of Sovereign Supply that is in loss, held by Long-Term Holders (light blue) and Short-Term Holders (light red), plotted with price (black). Sovereign Supply is defined as Long-Term Holder Supply plus Short-Term Holder Supply (both of which exclude supply held on exchanges).

Technical. Each component is the cohort's in-loss supply normalized by Sovereign Supply:

• LTH Supply in Loss (%) = LTH Supply in Loss / (LTH Supply + STH Supply) (light blue)
• STH Supply in Loss (%) = (LTH Supply in Loss + STH Supply in Loss) / (LTH Supply + STH Supply) (light red)

The formulas are calculated to visually display as a stacked chart: the value shown for the Short-Term Holder trace reflects the cumulative area of the two supply regions from bottom to top (STH + LTH), so the STH share reads as the band between the two traces.

Interpretation. Supply in loss expands whenever price trades below holders' cost bases, making this a direct gauge of unrealized pain in the market. The Short-Term Holder component reacts first — buyers of the recent top slip underwater on every correction — and dominates during early drawdowns. The Long-Term Holder component grows only when a bear market is well established and coins bought a full cycle earlier fall into loss; historically, peaks in LTH supply in loss have coincided with capitulation phases and macro bottom formation. Conversely, the stack compressing toward zero indicates a market where nearly all supply is in profit, a condition characteristic of euphoric uptrends.

Notes. This chart presents the in-loss components of the native Relative LTH/STH Supply in Profit/Loss metric. Built from LTH Supply in Loss, STH Supply in Loss, LTH Supply and STH Supply. The profit-side counterpart is Long- and Short-Term Holders Supply in Profit.