Definition. This chart displays the percentage of Long-Term Holder on-chain transfer volume in proportion to the total supply held by this cohort — the daily turnover of LTH supply — split into volume spent in profit (green, plotted positive) and volume spent in loss (red, plotted negative), with price in grey.

Technical. Both components are smoothed with a 14-day EMA and normalized by LTH supply:

• Volume in Profit (% of Supply) = ema(LTH Transfer Volume in Profit, 14) / LTH Supply (green)
• Volume in Loss (% of Supply) = -1 x ema(LTH Transfer Volume in Loss, 14) / LTH Supply (red)

The transfer volume series are entity-adjusted.

Interpretation. Long-Term Holder supply is the market's most dormant pool, so its turnover is structurally very low — which makes deviations informative. Periods where a large proportion of the held supply transacts typically occur around high-volatility events such as major sell-offs, and during oversupply events near market tops. Profit-side spikes represent distribution: mature coins being spent into market strength, historically concentrated around cycle highs. Loss-side spikes are rarer and more severe in meaning — high-conviction holders exiting underwater — and have historically aligned with capitulation phases and macro lows. A quiet chart, with both components near zero, describes a HODLing-dominated regime in which mature supply stays put.

Notes. The Short-Term Holder counterpart is Short-Term Holder Spent Volume as Percent of Held Supply; the profit/loss bias of the same cohort's volume is charted in Long-Term Holder Percent Transfer Volume in Profit. Built from Entity-Adjusted LTH Transfer Volume in Profit, Entity-Adjusted LTH Transfer Volume in Loss and LTH Supply.