This chart presents a ratio between the LTH Realized Loss/Profit Ratio, and its 1yr moving average. This tool provides a view of periods where the Loss/Profit Ratio is experiencing acceleration towards heavier losses, aiding in identification of trend inflection points.

LTH Realized Loss/Profit Momentum is calculated as follows:

LTH Realized L/P Ratio = LTH-Realized Loss / LTH-Realized Profit

LTH L/P Ratio Momentum = sma(LTH Realized L/P Ratio,7)/sma(LTH Realized L/P Ratio,365)

Long-Term Holders are typically the most active around cycle extremes due to a number of factors:

• Smart money that accumulated cheap coins tend to liquidate in increasing volumes as bull markets run on, creating an oversupply.

• Long-Term Holders that come of age during the bear market are generally cycle top buyers. This cohort have historically dominated capitulation pressure near cycle turning points.

Thus, tracking the momentum shifts for LTHs realizing Loss/Profit can signal when macro market trends are at an inflection point.

• 🟢 Realized Profit accelerates during market recoveries, as past cycle LTHs come into profit once again.
• 🔴 Realized Loss accelerates after blow-off tops, which plunge the youngest of the LTH cohort into a loss, creating panic.