Description
Definition. This chart shows the Net Realized Profit/Loss of the Long-Term Holder cohort in USD terms — Realized Profit minus Realized Loss — plotted as green (net profit) and red (net loss) columns, with a ghost trace of the Short-Term Holder cohort's equivalent shown for comparison (muted brown line) and price in grey. It captures the net daily change in the Realized Cap attributable to Long-Term Holders, and thus capital inflows and outflows from the Bitcoin asset.
Technical. Both cohort series use the entity-adjusted (account-based) realized profit and loss metrics:
LTH Net Realized P/L = sma(LTH Realized Profit - LTH Realized Loss, 7), split by sign into green (+ve) and red (-ve) columnsSTH Net Realized P/L (ghost) = ema(STH Realized Profit - STH Realized Loss, 7)
Interpretation. Realized Profit and Loss is one of the more powerful and unique tools within the discipline of on-chain analysis. It utilizes a concept called Pricestamping, where each coin (or UTXO) is assigned a price (and thus USD value) when it is spent on-chain. From this, we can calculate the difference between the value at the time of disposal, and at the time of acquisition:
- 🟢 Coins spent above acquisition value Realized a Profit.
- 🔴 Coins spent below acquisition value Realized a Loss.
These tools allow for inspection of the capital inflows and outflows from the asset, and provide indicators for both shorter and longer term sentiment across the market. Long-Term Holder realization patterns are particularly informative at macro turning points: sustained LTH profit-taking is characteristic of bull market distribution into strength, while dominant LTH losses have historically marked bear market capitulation events. Comparing the columns against the Short-Term Holder ghost trace shows which cohort is driving the day's net capital flow.
Notes. Built from LTH Realized Profit and LTH Realized Loss (entity-adjusted). A BTC-denominated view is available in Relative Long-Term Holder Realized Profit and Loss [BTC], and the profit-to-loss ratio view in Long-Term Holder Realized Profit / Loss Ratio.