Definition. Five Bitcoin bull markets rebased to a common starting value, shown together with the drawdowns sustained inside each one. Every cycle runs from its cycle-low close to its cycle-high close and is divided by the close on the low date, so all five paths begin at 1.0x and compare directly as cumulative multiples. The columns on the lower axis give, for each cycle, the decline from the highest close reached so far within that same cycle.

Technical. Each path is a subset() of the daily close between its two anchor dates divided by value_at() on the low date. The drawdown columns apply (f - cummax(f)) / cummax(f) against an expanding running maximum; the rebasing constant cancels between numerator and denominator, so the columns measure the drawdown of raw price and are unaffected by the normalisation. Anchors follow the house cycle dates: lows at 2010-07-17, 2011-11-18, 2015-01-14, 2018-12-16 and 2022-11-22, highs at 2011-06-08, 2013-11-30, 2017-12-16, 2021-11-08 and 2025-10-06. Horizontal guides mark the -10%, -23.6%, -38.2%, -50% and -61.8% levels, and a -100% line fixes the floor of the drawdown axis. Cycles are drawn at their true calendar dates rather than aligned to a shared origin, with price shown in grey behind them.

Interpretation. No cycle in the sample advanced without interruption. Each absorbed at least one decline deeper than 25% from its own running high and still went on to a new cycle high: -49% into December 2010, -71% into July 2013, -36% into July 2017, -63% into the March 2020 collapse, and -28% into April 2025. Depth alone therefore does not distinguish a mid-cycle correction from a cycle top, since two of the five cycles survived drawdowns beyond 60%. Cumulative cycle gains have compressed sharply across the sample, from roughly 599x in 2010-11 to 7.7x in 2022-25, consistent with a market of growing capitalisation, while the depth of interim corrections has compressed far less.

Notes. Drawdown measured from the running high of a single cycle differs from drawdown measured against the all-time high. The mirror image of this chart, counter-trend rallies inside completed bear markets, is shown in Bear Market Rally Performance. Cycle-relative performance from the same anchors is charted at Price Performance Since Cycle Low and Price Performance Since Cycle ATH.