Definition. Tracks the MVRV Ratio of the long-term holder cohort — the average unrealized profit multiple held by coins older than 155 days — as a four-state risk band.

Technical. LTH-MVRV is compared to three fixed bands at 1.0, 1.5 and 3.5. Very High Risk prints above 3.5, High Risk between 1.5 and 3.5, Low Risk between 1.0 and 1.5, and Very Low Risk below 1.0.

Interpretation. A long-term holder MVRV above 3.5 means the most patient cohort is sitting on more than a 3.5x average unrealized gain, a level of incentive that has historically preceded heavy distribution. A reading below 1.0 means long-term holders are underwater in aggregate, which occurs only in the deepest phases of a bear market.