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Glassnode

Description

Definition. Marks the periods where Bitcoin's spot price trades above both of the most widely watched long-horizon price floors at once — the on-chain Realized Price and the technical 200-day moving average.

Technical. Price (dark grey, log scale) is plotted against the Realized Price in orange and sma(Price, 200) in blue. The green signal columns are the product of two conditions:

  • if(Price > Realized Price, 1, 0) x if(Price > 200-day SMA, 1, 0)

so they light only when both hold on the same day. The complementary "below both models" series is defined on the workbench but hidden by default.

Interpretation. The Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of the circulating supply, so spot trading above it means the average holder is back in unrealized profit and the acute financial stress that characterises a bear market has eased. The 200-day SMA carries no on-chain meaning, but it is watched widely enough to act as a psychological bull/bear threshold in its own right. Requiring both filters out the whipsaws each model produces alone: in past cycles the combined signal has switched on during the early months of a recovery and stayed on through the bulk of the subsequent uptrend, which makes it a regime marker rather than a timing tool for the low itself.

Notes. Built from Price and Realized Price. Supplies the two pricing conditions of the recovery confluence score at the top of this dashboard.

Chart Details