Definition. Flags the top-heavy condition in which price falls below the cost basis of most recent buyers, leaving the newest supply underwater.

Technical. The cost basis of five progressively wider young cohorts — coins acquired within 24 hours, one week, one month, three months and six months — is reconstructed by dividing each cohort's share of entity-adjusted realized cap by its share of supply. The indicator counts how many of those five cost bases price is trading below, smooths the count with a 14-day EMA, and shades price when the smoothed count reaches 3.5 of 5, i.e. 70%.

Interpretation. A market is top-heavy when a large share of supply has been acquired near the highs. Once price slips beneath the cost basis of most of that supply, the recent buyers holding it are collectively at a loss and become a source of supply rather than demand — the condition that converts a stalling bull market into a sustained drawdown.